Future Monitor

Received a request to participate in a survey called "Future Monitor" in which a whole bunch of presumably "thought leaders" around the world are asked to asses the likely future impact of certain trends.

The trends they offer are anything from blogging to information security to aging baby boomers.

One of the questions is when will the first nuclear weapon go off and several choices are offered. I picked "in 1 - 3 years". At the end they ask a more open ended question of which single trend we would single out as having the biggest potential impact.

I chose nuclear proliferation and the first nuke to go off. There is no way of predicting with certainty when it will happen or even whether it will happen, but there is no doubt that if it does, it will have an impact far beyond anything else (such as "China" or proliferation of RFID devices).

It will be like 9/11, everything will be different after it then before. The things to consider then is "How?" everything will be different.


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